In very weather-dependent businesses, such as winter sports gear, our recommendation is to make a business decision concerning what inventory levels to go for. For high-margin items, the business impact of losing sales due to stock-outs is usually worse than the impact of needing to resort to clearance sales to get rid of excess stock, which is why it may make sense to plan in accordance with favorable weather. For low-margin items, rebates may quickly turn products unprofitable, which is why it may be wiser to have a more cautious inventory plan.
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In many cases, it is also very valuable to be able to go back in time to review what the forecast looked like in the past when an important business decision was made. Was a big purchase order, for example, placed because the actual forecast at that time contained a planned promotion that was later removed? In that case, the root cause for poor forecast accuracy was not the forecasting itself, but rather a lack of synchronization in planning. 2ff7e9595c
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